INTERPRETING FORECASTS

The information below describes the information contained in my forecasts.
Click here to see the current Dow Jones 30 industrial stock forecast.
Click here to see the current business-sector mutual fund forecast.

Each forecast contains Long or Short position recommendations for several issues. The issues are "stock symbols" or "fund symbols" sometimes called ticker-tape symbols. Click here for a description of issues (stock symbols).

Each issue lists the recent closing prices and position (L or S) recommendations. A Short (S) recommendation means that the forecast is for the price to DECREASE. A Long (L) recommendation means that the forecast is for the price to INCREASE.

What does the CURRENT TRPRI mean? This is the current trade price, or the price at which the current position was entered.

The TREND column gives the forecasted increase or decrease in price which is expected IN THIS LEG OF THE TREND.

The PAPER PROFIT column gives the gross paper profit which would have resulted if each recommended position had been taken at the recommended price, i.e., at the CURRENT TRADE PRICE.

Trading profitably is usually easy for portfolio managers and most professional traders. The reason is that they follow three rules: (1) Subscribe to and rely on a forecasting system that is consistently accurate more than 60% of the time; (2) Take profits, and (3) Avoid whipsaw trades.

THIS IS NOT A REVERSAL SYSTEM

A so-called "reversal forecasting system" is one which takes a position and simply reverses its position (Long to Short or from Short to Long) if the forecasted price direction turns out to be wrong. If that is done, the forecasts will appear to be correct most of the time. The problem with reversal systems is that the method usually results in many more "whipsaws" than the system demonstrated here.

The forecasting system seems similar to a reversal system, but only because it adapts in a way that prevents being on the "wrong side of the market." It prevents accumulating large paper losses. But, it will hold its position and accumulate small paper losses if the forecast is firmly in the opposite direction to small price movements. When this forecasting system reverses position in a whipsaw condition, the whipsaw condition is not reflected, although the forecasting accuracy is decreased by the position reversal on the day of the reversal. On the day of ANY reversal, the position is NOT counted as a WIN under any circumstances.

FORECASTING ACCURACY --

There are several ways to measure and report forecasting accuracy, depending on the needs of the client. These ways are discussed in detail in a research paper that I presented and published as a part of the INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON FORECASTING in Instanbul, 1996.
Click here for a description of forecasting accuracy.

MORE INFORMATION --

I can not respond to all of the telephone and email inquiries being received by me from private investors, but interested investors can obtain a copy of a publication that is provided for only the cost of preparation, publishing and handling (a not-for-profit accommodation and service for web site visitors who plan to use this forecasting information for investing). Investors can send for a copy of my publication "PRICE FORECASTS -- HOW TO INTERPRET PRICE FORECASTS AND INVEST PROFITABLY." This information is not available on-line or via email because of the drawings and script used throughout the publication to explain the information.

To obtain a copy, send a check ($25.00) to:

	  PRICE FORECASTS
          4300 Castle Ridge Court
          Charlotte, NC 28269

Click here for more info about forecasts.

3-Star award received from Magellan, after more than 40,000 internet web site reviews. Award based on depth of content, ease of exploration and net appeal.
Howard Phillips (hphillip@uncc.edu)