FORECASTING vs. TRADING & INVESTING

What is being posted on this web site is NOT a trading system; the advisories are forecasts resulting from an adaptive FORECASTING SYSTEM! This is very, very important. A forecasting system provides an INPUT to the trading system, and the trading system MUST do two things to be a good trading system:

     It must use ADDITIONAL criteria
     which IMPROVES the ROI that would
     be achieved if the forecasting
     system were used alone, and
     
     It must use ADDITIONAL criteria to
     achieve the trader's (investor's) 
     style, specifically including
     turnover rate, trading rate, or
     average holding time.
     
This is explained on the page having to do with INVESTING PROFITABLY. This is also strongly implied on the "HOW TO TRADE PROFITABLY" page, with the discussion of how important it is to "take profits" which is one of the ADDITIONAL criteria which IMPROVES the ROI that would be achieved using the forecasting system alone.

My consulting clients know that these are important points. But, I am concerned that perhaps I have not made these points strongly enough on this web site, for people that are NOT among my consulting clients.

Recall that the forecasting main page (home page) explains that "The purpose of this site is to demonstrate that forecasting accuracy can be consistently higher than 60%...

Summary and key point: The forecasts being posted on this web site are intended to be FORECASTING information; not a trading system or an investment system that is providing "filtered and final" trading recommendations.

Click here for more info about forecasts.



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Howard Phillips (hphillip@uncc.edu)