BUSINESS-SECTOR MUTUAL FUNDS FORECAST -- Not updated as a result of my retirement this semester (Spring 2004). It's been a pleasure being 80% to 90% correct for 10 years!

 

  Forecasting Accuracy =       89%                                        
                                                                          
                        CURRENT    ...CLOSING PRICES...              PAPER
ISSUE  NAME              TRPRI  |    4/15/04   4/16/04  TREND WINS  PROFIT
                                |                                         
DJI    DJ INDUSTRIAL     10452  |     10397 S   10452 L  -.2%          .0%
.SPX   S&P 500 INDEX      1135  |      1129 S    1135 L  -.5%          .0%
FBIOX  BIOTECHNOLOGY     58.09  |     57.55 S   58.09 L  -.3%          .0%
FBMPX  MULTIMEDIA        44.40  |     43.74 S   44.02 S  -.9%    +     .9%
FCYIX  CYCLICAL INDUSTR  16.13  |     15.98 S   16.13 L  -.3%          .0%
FDCPX  COMPUTERS         37.00  |     36.04 S   35.56 S -4.2%    +    3.9%
FDFAX  FOOD & AGRICULTU  46.70  |     46.27 S   46.70 L  -.4%          .0%
FDLSX  LEISURE           72.83  |     72.42 S   72.96 S -1.0%         -.2%
FGRIX  GROWTH & INCOME   36.32  |     36.13 S   36.32 L  -.4%          .0%
FIDSX  FINANCIAL SERVIC 120.58  |    114.35 S  115.48 S -2.3%    +    4.2%
FNARX  NATURAL RESOURCE  15.28  |     15.13 S   15.28 L   .8%          .0%
FSAIX  AIR TRANSPORTATI  30.06  |     29.64 S   29.75 S  -.7%    +    1.0%
FSAVX  AUTOMOTIVE PTFL   33.04  |     32.82 S   33.04 L  -.9%          .0%
FSCGX  INDUSTRIAL EQUIP  24.95  |     24.52 S   24.71 S -1.5%    +    1.0%
FSCHX  CHEMICALS PORTFO  53.29  |     52.84 S   53.29 L  -.2%          .0%
FSCPX  CONSUMER PRODS    23.53  |     23.32 S   23.45 S  -.5%    +     .3%
FSCSX  SOFTWARE          52.28  |     51.46 S   51.33 S -2.2%    +    1.8%
FSDAX  DEFENSE AND AERO  55.53  |     55.27 S   55.39 S  -.8%    +     .3%
FSDCX  DEVELOPING COMMU  19.15  +     18.66 S   18.45 S -4.6%    +    3.7%
FSDPX  INDUSTRIAL MATER  35.74  |     33.08 S   33.28 S -4.2%    +    6.9%
FSELX  ELECTRONICS       43.80  |     43.58 S   42.35 S -3.3%    +    3.3%
FSENX  ENERGY            25.95  |     27.00 L   27.39 L   .4%    +    5.5%
FSESX  ENGY SRV          34.10  |     34.60 L   35.31 L   .4%    +    3.5%
FSHCX  MEDICAL DELIVERY  33.22  |     32.78 S   31.86 S -3.8%    +    4.1%
FSHOX  HOUSING PORTFOLI  36.95  |     35.52 S   35.81 S -1.6%    +    3.1%
FSLBX  BROKERAGE AND IN  50.80  |     50.80 S   50.50 S -4.4%    +     .6%
FSLEX  ENVIRONMENTAL SE  13.31  |     13.27 S   13.32 S -1.5%         -.1%
FSNGX  NATURAL GAS       22.91  |     23.42 L   23.97 L   .9%    +    4.6%
FSPCX  INSURANCE PORTFO  59.92  |     58.82 S   58.65 S -2.2%    +    2.1%
FSPFX  PAPER & FOREST    31.02  |     31.02 S   31.30 S  -.4%         -.9%
FSPHX  HEALTH           125.10  |    123.54 S  125.10 L   .5%          .0%
FSPTX  TECHNOLOGY        61.66  |     61.35 S   60.19 S -2.9%    +    2.4%
FSRBX  REGIONAL BANKS    40.01  |     38.48 S   38.23 S -4.3%    +    4.4%
FSRFX  TRANSPORTATION    33.46  |     33.17 S   33.19 S -1.0%    +     .8%
FSRPX  RETAILING         46.87  |     46.14 S   46.44 S -1.6%    +     .9%
FSTCX  TELECOMMUNICATIO  34.13  |     34.13 S   33.91 S -2.5%    +     .6%
FSUTX  UTILITIES GROWTH  33.77  |     33.05 S   33.19 S -1.8%    +    1.7%
FSVLX  HOME FINANCE      67.82  |     62.45 S   62.20 S -4.3%    +    8.3%
                                                                          
NAV values obtained from Fidelity Investments at ~8 p.m.                  
Occasionally, Fidelity does NOT post updated prices.                      
L = LONG.  S = SHORT/SELL.  C = CASH.                          89%        
Not adjusted for dividend distributions.                      WINS

World's highest forecasting accuracy?

This is a question, not an outrageous claim. I began posting forecasts for this portfolio in February, 1995. Since that time, I have compared forecasts using this adaptive forecasting method to other sources of forecasts. I've been amazed to learn that these forecasts have had a higher forecasting accuracy, and a more consistent HIGH forecasting accuracy than forecasts from ANY OTHER SOURCE that I am aware of. Please let me know if you are aware of forecasts from other sources that are better. For a direct comparison, any other forecasts must be published or posted daily BEFORE the market opens (no back testing comparisons), and the forecasting accuracy must be available daily, using all of the forecasts made in the portfolio.

We engineers are a conservative group of professionals, and I don't want to make any claim unless I definitely believe it to be true. To the best of my knowledge, these forecasts have had a higher forecasting accuracy, and a more consistent HIGH forecasting accuracy than forecasts from ANY OTHER SOURCE. Unless I can locate a more accurate source of forecasts, I will be drawn to the conclusion that adaptive forecasting yields the world's best forecasting accuracy. Please contact me if you have comments or data to share.

Delayed prices and how you can help

You may notice that for some funds, the prices that we report here are often one day behind. Yes, of course this is a problem, for you and for me. The problem lies with FOX PLUS, and you can help solve this problem. These funds are Fidelity funds, any you'd think that Fidelity would post accurate closing prices for these funds soon after the market closes each day, right? Unfortunately, Fidelity can't seem to remember to do this on a regular, consistent basis. I download prices each evening, about 8 p.m. (four hours after the markets have closed and closing prices SHOULD be available from Fidelity). At 8 p.m. I use a software program called FOX PLUS, provided by Fidelity, to download prices for the day. But, most days, the Fidelity Fox Plus download gives me closing prices from the previous day; not the current closing prices. I've pointed this out to Fidelity, but to no avail. But, you can help to change this. Here is how you can help solve this problem. Phone Fidelity FOX PLUS and tell them about this problem and that you would very much like them to solve this problem. To reach FOX PLUS, dial toll free 1-800-544-0240, then press 3 after you hear their short recording. If you can't get through on that phone number, another phone number is 1-800-343-0860, and ask to be transferred to a human being in the FOX PLUS department. If you want to write to them about this, send your letter to Fidelity Investments, 82 Devonshire Street, Boston, MA 01209. Many voices (yours) will hopefully have more effect than one voice (mine). This page has had more than 40,000 hits in the past months, so I'm counting on the power of YOUR phone calls and YOUR letters to Fidelity to encourage them to solve this problem. After all, it is a realistic expectation to have Fidelity FOX PLUS post current closing prices for Fidelity mutual funds within 4 hours after the market closes. Make your phone call now! Send your letter now! Thanks for helping!
Click here to see the current Dow Jones 30 industrial stock forecast.
Click here for more information about forecasting.

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Howard Phillips (hphillip@uncc.edu)