HOW THE SELLOFF ON 1/14/99 WAS FORECASTED
ACCURATELY
DOW SELLOFF WAS FORECASTED WITH 96% FORECASTING ACCURACY
For Immediate Release ... January 14, 1999 ... 11 p.m. EST
This sharp selloff was accurately predicted by an adaptive
forecasting computer with a consistent record of forecasting
major market crashes for the past several years. This selloff
and earlier stock market crashes on October 27, 1997 and October
31, 1998 were accurately predicted and posted on the internet.
Today (1/14/99), the Dow closed down another 229 points, for a
total loss of 354 points in two days. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average plunged 261 points yesterday (1/13/99) in early trading
before staging a recovery at noon, to close down more than 125
points.
This decline in stock prices occured after two weeks of strong
gains. Before this selloff began to accelerate, on 1/12/99, the
market decline was forecasted with a 96% forecasting accuracy.
When the adaptive forecast generated new sell signals for the
Dow, the S&P 500 and 14 of 37 business sectors, the financial
markets were poised for a big selloff.
These forecasts notify investors to take action, prevent losses,
and preserve their investment capital. The selloffs can either
be very brief or extended over several days. In either case the
investor can benefit from knowing in advance that price declines
are probable.
Financial market forecasts are posted publicly each evening on
the internet for investors to consider before the market opens
the following day ( http://www.coe.uncc.edu/~hphillip/ ).
The evening before the current big decline in the stock markets,
the forecast recommended a SELL for the DJIA and the S&P 500
indexes, as well as new SELL signals for 14 of the 38 mutual
funds listed in the daily forecasts. Sell forecasts were posted
before the big selloff for several business sectors, including
financial securities, industrial equipment, energy, regional
banks, and transportation.
Phillips & Co. provides financial forecasts to Fortune 500
companies and institutional investors. The high forecasting
accuracy is being obtained using engineering forecasting theory
developed by Dr. Phillips before he joined The University of
North Carolina at Charlotte. The university recently established
a Financial Engineering field of study for Ph.D. students.
A book has been written to describe computer-generated financial
forecasting and how to interpret/use the forecasts that are
posted publicly on the internet.
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For additional information: Phillips & Co.
Dr. H. Phillips
Voice Telephone: 704-593-1166
FAX: 704-593-1002
hp@unc.edu
Photograph available: http://www.coe.uncc.edu/~hphillip/
More information below: Here is the forecast posted on 1/12/99,
the evening before the sharp selloff in worldwide financial
markets began on 1/13/99.
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SELECT MUTUAL FUNDS
FROM: Howard Phillips
PHONE: 704-593-1166
Forecasting Accuracy = 96%
CURRENT ...CLOSING PRICES... PAPER
ISSUE NAME TRPRI | 01/11/99 01/12/99 TREND WINS PROFIT NEWS
|
.DJI DJ IND 9475 | 9620 L 9475 S .1% .0% SELL
.IXIC NAS/NM 2013 | 2385 L 2321 L 1.3% + 15.3%
.SPX S&P 50 1240 | 1264 L 1240 S -1.5% .0% SELL
FBIOX BIOTEC 36.54 | 39.21 L 39.15 L -.9% + 7.1%
FBMPX MULTIM 36.52 | 41.74 L 41.21 L 1.0% + 12.8%
FCYCF CYCLIC 11.22 | 12.10 L 11.93 L -1.0% + 6.3%
FDCPX COMPUT 61.05 | 73.12 L 71.29 L 1.1% + 16.8%
FDFAX FOOD & 48.68 | 48.68 S 48.01 S -2.2% + 1.4%
FDLSX LEISUR 67.91 | 78.49 L 77.14 L 1.1% + 13.6%
FDPMX PRECIO 9.13 + 10.71 L 10.40 L 3.6% + 13.9%
FGRIX GROWTH 45.23 | 46.00 L 45.23 S -2.2% .0% SELL
FIDSX FINANC 99.87 | 101.94 L 99.87 S -1.5% .0% SELL
FNATF NATURA 8.89 | 9.10 L 8.89 S -.5% .0% SELL
FSAGX AMERIC 13.93 | 14.98 L 14.43 L 3.5% + 3.6%
FSAIX AIR TR 23.64 | 26.75 L 26.38 L -.3% + 11.6%
FSAVX AUTOMO 23.26 | 25.60 L 25.16 L .1% + 8.2%
FSCGX INDUST 26.17 | 26.67 L 26.17 S -1.2% .0% SELL
FSCHX CHEMIC 32.89 | 32.92 S 32.35 S -1.6% + 1.6%
FSCPX CONSUM 31.19 | 31.50 L 31.19 S -1.3% .0% SELL
FSCSX SOFTWA 49.15 | 57.31 L 55.95 L 1.3% + 13.8%
FSDAX DEFENS 34.26 | 34.67 L 34.26 S -1.5% .0% SELL
FSDCX DEVELO 26.70 | 33.63 L 32.84 L 2.7% + 23.0%
FSDPX INDUST 20.11 | 21.82 L 21.36 L 1.2% + 6.2%
FSELX ELECTR 44.57 | 52.45 L 51.58 L 1.0% + 15.7%
FSENX ENERGY 18.17 | 18.57 L 18.17 S -1.2% .0% SELL
FSESX ENGY S 15.81 | 16.66 L 15.81 S .1% .0% SELL
FSHCX MEDICA 22.61 + 22.16 S 21.87 S -4.6% + 3.3%
FSHOX HOUSIN 27.27 | 27.27 S 27.28 S -2.0% -.0%
FSLBX BROKER 36.41 | 42.02 L 41.16 L .4% + 13.0%
FSLEX ENVIRO 12.65 | 13.96 L 13.83 L -.8% + 9.3%
FSNGX NATURA 11.59 | 11.79 L 11.59 S -.8% .0% SELL
FSPCX INSURA 42.57 | 43.11 L 42.57 S -1.7% .0% SELL
FSPFX PAPER 18.11 | 20.00 L 19.79 L 2.3% + 9.3%
FSPHX HEALTH131.94 | 131.94 S 130.38 S -3.7% + 1.2%
FSPTX TECHNO 71.48 | 86.57 L 84.65 L 1.3% + 18.4%
FSRBX REGION 42.52 | 43.50 L 42.52 S -1.8% .0% SELL
FSRFX TRANSP 23.81 | 24.22 L 23.81 S -.3% .0% SELL
FSRPX RETAIL 63.19 | 64.12 L 63.19 S -2.9% .0% SELL
FSTCX TELECO 53.54 | 62.75 L 61.60 L -.9% + 15.1%
FSUTX UTILIT 61.16 | 61.80 L 61.16 S -1.8% .0% SELL
FSVLX HOME F 41.22 | 44.80 L 44.30 L .0% + 7.5%
L = LONG. S = SHORT/SELL. C = CASH. 96%
Not adjusted for dividend distributions. WINS
FORECASTING ACCURACY = 96%.
Forecasting Accuracy = % of WINS for positions held 1 day or longer.
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