DOW 30 STOCK FORECAST -- Not updated as a result of my retirement this semester (Spring 2004). It's been a pleasure being 80% to 90% correct for 10 years!
FORECASTING ACCURACY =
PRIOR CURRENT ...CLOSING PRICES... PAPER
ISSUE TRPRI TRPRI | 4/27/04 4/28/04 TREND RANK WINS PROFIT
|
AA 33.99 33.08 | 32.30 S 31.01 S -3.8% 2 + 6.3%
AXP 50.78 50.28 | 50.15 S 49.04 S -1.9% 16 + 2.5%
BA 41.35 42.27 | 43.55 L 44.03 L 3.4% 13 + 4.2%
C 52.06 49.92 | 48.96 S 48.43 S -1.5% 21 + 3.0%
CAT 84.10 80.90 | 81.80 S 79.70 S -2.8% 6 + 1.5%
DD 44.83 44.52 | 44.52 S 43.41 S -1.7% 11 + 2.5%
DIS 25.35 25.70 | 24.18 S 23.95 S -2.8% 3 + 6.8%
EK 26.10 25.99 | 26.30 L 25.99 S -.8% 27 .0%
GE 31.23 30.47 | 30.55 S 30.02 S -1.6% 12 + 1.5%
GM 47.77 48.50 | 49.50 L 48.50 S -.0% 19 .0%
HD 36.35 35.99 | 36.53 L 35.99 S -.4% 28 .0%
HON 34.00 34.60 | 35.44 L 35.17 L 1.6% 23 + 1.6%
HPQ 21.81 21.26 | 21.26 S 20.70 S -3.5% 4 + 2.6%
IBM 92.28 91.11 | 91.11 L 90.41 L -.3% 26 -.8%
INTC 27.53 26.88 | 26.88 S 26.35 S -1.5% 9 + 2.0%
IP 43.02 42.44 | 42.59 S 41.17 S -2.8% 8 + 3.0%
JNJ 53.13 53.64 | 54.36 L 54.19 L 1.1% 25 + 1.0%
JPM 38.77 38.62 | 38.62 L 37.93 L -.2% 5 -1.8%
KO 51.20 51.46 | 50.71 S 50.21 S -1.6% 18 + 2.4%
MCD 27.40 27.20 | 27.20 S 27.61 S .1% 10 -1.5%
MMM 86.95 86.72 | 88.38 L 86.72 S .1% 20 .0%
MO 53.61 55.83 | 55.91 S 55.28 S -1.1% 17 + 1.0%
MRK 46.21 46.74 | 47.25 L 47.44 L 1.3% 7 + 1.5%
MSFT 25.53 26.56 | 27.22 L 26.56 S .5% 15 .0%
PG 104.99 104.17 | 105.63 L 104.17 S .1% 30 .0%
SBC 24.58 24.41 | 25.49 L 25.21 L -.2% 14 + 3.3%
T 19.73 19.23 | 18.14 S 17.85 S -1.0% 1 + 7.2%
UTX 87.48 87.70 | 89.94 L 89.07 L 1.3% 29 + 1.6%
WMT 57.79 58.14 | 58.60 S 57.98 S -.8% 22 + .3%
XOM 43.30 43.01 | 43.75 S 43.12 S .7% 24 -.3%
Prices obtained from Fidelity Investments at ~8 p.m.
Occasionally, Fidelity does NOT post updated prices.
83%
WINS
T, UTX, WMT, XOM data rest 12/11/02.
Forecasting Accuracy = % of WINS for positions held 1 day or longer.
Not adjusted for stock splits or dividends.
World's highest forecasting accuracy?
This is a question, not an outrageous claim. I began posting
forecasts for this portfolio in February, 1995. Since that time,
I have compared forecasts using this adaptive forecasting method
to other sources of forecasts. I've been amazed to learn that
these forecasts have had a higher forecasting accuracy, and a
more consistent HIGH forecasting accuracy than forecasts from ANY
OTHER SOURCE that I am aware of. Please let me know if you are
aware of forecasts from other sources that are better. For a
direct comparison, any other forecasts must be published or
posted daily BEFORE the market opens (no back testing
comparisons), and the forecasting accuracy must be available
daily, using all of the forecasts made in the portfolio. We
engineers are a conservative group of professionals, and I don't
want to make any claim unless I definitely believe it to be
true. To the best of my knowledge, these forecasts have had a
higher forecasting accuracy, and a more consistent HIGH
forecasting accuracy than forecasts from ANY OTHER SOURCE. Unless
I can locate a more accurate source of forecasts for stocks, I
will be drawn to the conclusion that adaptive forecasting yields
the world's best forecasting accuracy. Please contact me
if you have comments or data to share.
Click here to see the
current business-sector mutual fund forecast.
Click here for a more
information about forecasting.
3-Star award received from Magellan, after more than 40,000 internet
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and net appeal.
Howard Phillips (hphillip@uncc.edu)